China’s trade landscape is showing contrasting signals — a sharp decline in exports to the United States but a promising surge in global shipments.
According to customs data released Monday, China’s worldwide exports climbed 8.3% year-on-year in September, reaching USD 328.5 billion, surpassing economists’ expectations and marking the strongest performance in six months. This follows a modest 4.4% increase recorded in August.
Imports also grew 7.4%, signaling some improvement in trade activity despite the challenges of a sluggish domestic economy and continued struggles in the real estate sector that dampen overall consumption.
However, China’s exports to the United States fell by 27% compared to last year — marking the sixth consecutive month of decline. In August, exports to the US had already dropped 33%. The persistent drop reflects growing strain between Beijing and Washington, as both nations continue to introduce new tariffs and retaliatory measures, dimming hopes for trade stability.
In response to US trade pressures and policy shifts encouraging manufacturers to relocate to America, China has turned to diversifying its export markets. Shipments to Southeast Asia jumped 15.6%, while exports to Latin America rose 15% and Africa surged 56% year-on-year — highlighting China’s strategic expansion into emerging markets.
“Currently, the external environment remains severe and complicated. Trade faces increasing uncertainty and difficulties,” said Wang Jun, Vice Minister of China’s Customs Agency. “We still need to put in more efforts to stabilize trade in the fourth quarter.”
Gary Ng, Senior Economist at Natixis, noted that China’s exports “continue to show resilience given low costs and limited global alternatives despite higher tariffs.” Yet, he warned that export controls could pose a greater long-term risk, as disruptions in supply chains may have deeper consequences than tariffs alone.
Tensions reignited on Friday after former US President Donald Trump threatened an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods and new export controls on critical technologies. In response, Beijing imposed new port fees on American ships and extended restrictions on exports of lithium-ion batteries and rare earth technologies.
These mounting frictions could jeopardize a potential meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month — signaling continued instability in the world’s most significant trade relationship.
